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Lesson Learning is a Never-Ending Process

March 24, 2021    by Jordi Visser

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The following is an excerpt from Weiss' newest recurring market commentary, Jordi's Journal, which focuses on timely thoughts and musing on the financial markets. 

"The question I am asked the most frequently so far in 2021 has been what lessons were learned in 2020. 

Because of the shock and despair of 2020, the conversation can go in many directions but when it comes to what lessons were learned about the forecasting of markets, there are two things that stand out to me. The first being that there are many potential outcomes that are missed on the probability distribution. The second lesson is that we are in uncharted experimental territory as it relates to a monetary and fiscal policy, so history may be an inadequate guide to forecast the future. 

The second lesson is worth unpacking as we near the end of Q1. Currently, the consensus is that the monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will propel economic growth and inflation to levels we have not seen in decades and earnings are going to be explosive. Despite these uniquely bullish expectations, it is also expected that the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government will continue to support the market regardless of the strength of the data and, in turn, that the market will continue to act the same way."

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