A Preview of Jordi's 2023 Kentucky Derby Paper

Jordi Visser

We are now less than three weeks away from the Kentucky Derby. We finished the final three major prep races on April 8th, allowing us to take an early look at how the field currently shapes up. As we know, there will likely be twists and turns on the road to the final horses who start in the gate for the race on the first Saturday in May. 


Normally at this point, there are usually 2 or 3 horses that have separated themselves from the pack.  This year, however, is different as there are 6 or 7 horses that seem to have the foundation, progression, speed, and distance capabilities to make it a more wide-open Kentucky Derby for bettors. Two themes have developed as these 3-year-old horses moved on from their 2-year-old campaigns. The first is that the rate of change of progression for some horses is much wider than in years past. While some of the current favorites did not race at all last year and were unlikely to make the race at all until the final preps, others that raced well last year have not improved much from their peaks last year. The second theme is that this looks to be a deep, competitive group with similar running styles making the pace projection of the race interesting.


The current favorites based on Vegas odds are Forte, Kingsbarns, Tapit Trice, Practical Move, Angel of Empire, Two Phil’s and Derma Sotogake. All seven won their final prep race. Derma Sotogake and Kingsbarns both won their final preps at a distance of 1 3/16 miles while the other five won at 1 1/8 miles. For the five who won at 1 1/8 miles, all of them met the historical bar of running the final 1/8 of a mile in under 13 seconds and the final 3/8 mile in under 38 seconds. This has been an important metric for prior Derby winners showing they are still strong at the end of the race and able to handle the extra 1/8 mile. Out of these five, Practical Move did run his final 1/8 mile at a much slower pace than the average of his final 3/8 mile which is another metric I have used in the past suggesting 1 ¼ miles may be tough for him. The other four were all strong in their final 1/8 mile relative to the average of the final 3/8 mile.


From a speed rating basis, the Beyer Speed Figure is one factor in handicapping where things are tight.   Two Phil’s leads the pack with a 101 Beyer figure. Forte and Practical Move have both posted a 100 Beyer figure in their careers, but the favorite, Forte, has a 100 figure. Forte achieved this last year as a 2-year-old, which is a concern since upward speed progression in these young horses is more ideal. Tapit Trice’s final prep speed figure was 99 and he is still showing progression. Angel of Empire and Kingsbarn’s final speed figures of 94 and 95, respectively, were the lowest of the six but both are showing progression as well.  Derma Sotogake’s final prep race was in the UAE Derby and does not have a Beyer’s speed figure. However, compared to the Dubai World Cup race for older horses, the race was very fast implying Derma Sotogake’s Beyer reading would likely be 100 or higher.


There are some interesting Derby stories that have developed. Derma Sotogake is from Japan and has never won a Kentucky Derby despite recent success in Japanese racing on the international stage. Based on the current Vegas odds, there is a chance this horse could go off as the second choice on Derby day.  Another story is the presence of trainer Todd Pletcher in this race as he trains Tapit Trice, Kingsbarns and the favorite, Forte. Bob Baffert is still suspended from training a horse in the race this year, but he may have one horse in the race that will be trained by a replacement trainer. Finally, expect some recency bias in the betting due to last year’s winner, Rich Strike. When a longshot wins like last year, I would expect to see many horses that should be at higher odds seeing their odds come down as people look for a repeat of 2022. 
Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.

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Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.

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