Below is an excerpt from President and CIO Jordi Visser's latest whitepapers, "Adapt or Die 3.0: The ABCs of Marc Andreessen and the End of Moats." You can access a full copy of the document by clicking here.
The last three years have been a wild roller coaster ride for investors. It is difficult to remember every twist, turn and loop de loop that has happened during this adrenaline-filled moment in time. Everyone seems to remember where they were in March 2020 when the world suddenly closed, and we all boarded the roller coaster, but after that, it became an experiential blur. Only now, the caboose of the covid train seems to be finally leaving the tunnel as China nears the end of its zero covid policy. To summarize what occurred on this never-ending ride, there was a global pandemic, a closing of the global economy, a significant stock market fall, massive money printing, a record-timing vaccine delivery, a meaningful stock market recovery, a storming of the Capitol building, multiple covid variants, skyrocketing inflation, unprecedented central bank rate hikes, a stock and bond market collapse, a Russia invasion of Ukraine, and what appears to be the unofficial ending of the pandemic with the end of the zero covid policy. If all of this wasn’t enough, just as this three-year ride is ending, the consensus outlook for 2023 includes more pain for stocks and a recession.
Although some forecast economic doom, the good news is that the consensus recession call seems to be for a mild recession. Since there is no accepted definition of a recession, there is certainly not one for a mild recession. Most stock forecasts expect weakness early in 2023, followed by a rally once earnings revisions reflect the recession risk. Barring an economic collapse, the economy has a low threshold to exceed expectations this year.
Download the full copy of the document by clicking here.
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