In the latest video from Real-Time with Jordi Visser, Jordi presents his views that the data says we are not entering a recession. To make this point, he walks through the data that others are using to argue recession is near. He distinguishes the current market environment from prior bear market rallies in 2008-2009 and 2001-2002. Taking a note from Annie Duke’s recent book “Quit,” Jordi outlines why he believes investors are psychologically having a hard time “quitting” on the themes and positions of 2022, which is typical at historically important economic and inflationary inflection points.
Key Takeaways:
- Despite elevated recession fears, Jordi outlines his belief that we are in an environment that is actually exiting an investor recession. Although many market participants have argued that the ISM and LEI show signs of an approaching recession, Jordi argues that the jobs data, service PMIs, China, and EU PMIs paint a different picture.
- Jordi distinguishes this rally from past bear market rallies, pointing to catalysts that make the current conditions pronounced, pervasive and persistent, and therefore, sustainable.
- Jordi makes the point that equity markets tend to follow credit markets and reminds us: “Don’t fight the cred” is the theme for 2023. This comes after the “Don’t fight the Fed” mantra of 2022.
- Finally, Jordi evaluates the current oil picture, which appears to be showing signs of weakness. Despite China's re-opening, Jordi believes too many people are expecting a surge in commodities. He believes any bounce in commodities will be subdued relative to history.
About These Videos: Our market videos seek to provide a data-focused interpretation of the market's most critical developments. Real-Time with Jordi Visser is a recurring series produced by our President and CIO based on his macro views. The purpose of his series is to isolate macroeconomic indicators ("green marbles") that are telling the true story of the market, rather than relying on the narratives or stories often portrayed as news. Jordi is a unique thinker and tends to publish these videos during market dislocations/regime shifts when he sees areas where his views differ from consensus sentiment.
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Important disclosures:
Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.
Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.
Important disclosures:
Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.
Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.
