Lesson Learning is a Never-Ending Process

Jordi Visser

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Below is an excerpt from President and CIO Jordi Visser's recently published whitepaper, Lesson Learning is a Never-Ending Process. You can access a full copy of the document by clicking here.

"The question I am asked the most frequently so far in 2021 has been what lessons were learned in 2020. 

Because of the shock and despair of 2020, the conversation can go in many directions but when it comes to what lessons were learned about the forecasting of markets, there are two things that stand out to me. The first is that there are many potential outcomes that are missed on the probability distribution. The second lesson is that we are in an uncharted experimental territory as it relates to a monetary and fiscal policy, so history may be an inadequate guide to forecast the future. 

The second lesson is worth unpacking as we near the end of Q1. Currently, the consensus is that the monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will propel economic growth and inflation to levels we have not seen in decades and earnings are going to be explosive. Despite these uniquely bullish expectations, it is also expected that the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government will continue to support the market regardless of the strength of the data and, in turn, that the market will continue to act the same way."

You can access a full copy of the document by clicking here.

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Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.