November 2023 Monthly Review

Jordi Visser

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After over a year of inflation and rate spike anxiety, sentiment dramatically reversed in November as the narrative shifted to potential sizable rate cuts in 2024.  The violence of the shift and crowdedness of the positioning for inflation is evident in the SGI Cross Asset Trend Following Index, which had its largest monthly decline in over two years.  10-year rates had their first monthly decline since April.  Stocks rallied with the SPX up close to 9%, with the market being led by technology with the NDX rising over 10%.  The surprise in the market was the lack of beta as the Russell 2000 small caps were up slightly less than the SPX for the month. As we have said since June, once the macro shifts become more muted, we expect there to be a broadening out of the winners and losers in the market.  Although we did see some signs of it in November, we now expect the fears over rate hikes and recessions to recede leading to the long-awaited broadening.

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Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.