The Outlook Post Today's Inflation Print [VIDEO]

Jordi Visser

down arrow

Following today’s higher-than-expected CPI print, Jordi remains calm and asserts his belief that despite a surprising Core CPI number, from a broader perspective, inflation has peaked. In the latest installment of Real-Time with Jordi Visser, Jordi outlines his perspective that we are currently exiting the COVID-driven recession. This can be seen through the recent bearish sentiment and high cash levels. As such, Jordi asserts that investors' focus can shift toward the continued strength in Nominal GDP and the fall in energy prices, which have improved consumer and business sentiment. Further, he outlines his view that hedge funds could be approaching a re-leveraging event after a challenging two years.

Key Takeaways:

  • Inflation can be calculated using different methodologies; therefore, Jordi uses more measures than CPI to inform his views on inflation. Over the last month, the PCE deflator and many other inflation gauges have fallen. Further, given the lag for economists to catch inflation as it was rising, Jordi asserts that market participants might be underweighting the probability that economists could be late on the way down.
  • Gas at the pump in the US and natural gas futures in Europe have fallen which will continue to help sentiment. Further, he believes that this falling input cost combined with better sentiment will cause estimate revisions to surprise on the upside in the coming quarterly release.
  • Jordi is watching factor relationships such as quality vs. beta. He believes that recent factor moves indicate the ISM Index will bounce.

About These Videos: Our market videos seek to provide a data-focused interpretation of the market's most critical developments. Real-Time with Jordi Visser is a recurring series produced by our President and CIO based on his macro views. The purpose of his series is to isolate macroeconomic indicators ("green marbles") that are telling the true story of the market, rather than relying on the narratives or stories often portrayed as news. Jordi is a unique thinker and tends to publish these videos during market dislocations/regime shifts when he sees areas where his views differ from consensus sentiment.
Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.