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The Outlook Post Today's Inflation Print [VIDEO]
Following today’s higher-than-expected CPI print, Jordi remains calm and asserts his belief that despite a surprising Core CPI number, from a broader perspective, inflation has peaked. In the latest installment of Real-Time with Jordi Visser, Jordi outlines his perspective that we are currently exiting the COVID-driven recession. This can be seen through the recent bearish sentiment and high cash levels. As such, Jordi asserts that investors' focus can shift toward the continued strength in Nominal GDP and the fall in energy prices, which have improved consumer and business sentiment. Further, he outlines his view that hedge funds could be approaching a re-leveraging event after a challenging two years.
Inflation can be calculated using different methodologies; therefore, Jordi uses more measures than CPI to inform his views on inflation. Over the last month, the PCE deflator and many other inflation gauges have fallen. Further, given the lag for economists to catch inflation as it was rising, Jordi asserts that market participants might be underweighting the probability that economists could be late on the way down.
Gas at the pump in the US and natural gas futures in Europe have fallen which will continue to help sentiment. Further, he believes that this falling input cost combined with better sentiment will cause estimate revisions to surprise on the upside in the coming quarterly release.
Jordi is watching factor relationships such as quality vs. beta. He believes that recent factor moves indicate the ISM Index will bounce.
About These Videos: Our market videos seek to provide a data-focused interpretation of the market's most critical developments. Real-Time with Jordi Visser is a recurring series produced by our President and CIO based on his macro views. The purpose of his series is to isolate macroeconomic indicators ("green marbles") that are telling the true story of the market, rather than relying on the narratives or stories often portrayed as news. Jordi is a unique thinker and tends to publish these videos during market dislocations/regime shifts when he sees areas where his views differ from consensus sentiment.
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