September Insights: Jordi's Market Forecast Amid “Goldilocks” Economies and China's Big Play [VIDEO]

Jordi Visser

As we enter September, Jordi updates his views on the markets, observing the SPX's performance after the summer market consolidation. Earnings season passed and earnings revisions defy the bearish expectations once again as margins continue to stay strong. He highlights the most recent important data releases on the economy still suggesting growth is stable and inflation continues to decline. He still expects the surprises into the end of year to be small with the ISM bouncing back to 50 on the back of low inventories and a bounce in China economic data. 


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Key Takeaways:

  • The Fed’s goal to slow inflation and the labor market became more evident over the summer putting nominal GDP on a path to be below the fed funds rate soon.
  • Despite softening in the payroll numbers they remain at healthy levels as the non-cyclical healthcare jobs continue to be driving the monthly gains.
  • After an early August drop in equities after stronger than expected economic data, the end of the month gave hope the economy remains in the not too hot not too cold region called Goldilocks by some.
  • August was the month China decided to throw everything at the economy and market to try and get animal spirits going and Jordi expects it to cause a reaction into the end of the year.

About These Videos: Our market videos seek to provide a data-focused interpretation of the market's most critical developments. Real-Time with Jordi Visser is a recurring series produced by our President and CIO based on his macro views. The purpose of his series is to isolate macroeconomic indicators ("green marbles") that are telling the true story of the market, rather than relying on the narratives or stories often portrayed as news. Jordi is a unique thinker and tends to publish these videos during market dislocations/regime shifts when he sees areas where his views differ from consensus sentiment.

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Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.
Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.