September 2023 Monthly Review

Jordi Visser

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Q3 ended with a volatile September driven by fears over inflation and potential further rate hikes.  The SPX had its worst month of the year, closing down 4.87%.  The NDX and Russell 2000 led the way lower, with both indices down more than 5%.  As investors began again to worry that maybe the Fed was not done, 10-year yields were up 46 basis points, which was their largest monthly rise since September 2022.  It was the 5th consecutive monthly rise of over 100 bps in total.  WTI crude was up 7 dollars for the 4th consecutive monthly rise for a total of over 22 dollars.  After a strong rally to start the year, equities were due for a correction, and rates and oil were the perfect combination.  The one positive was that despite the market volatility the GS VIP Hedge Index outperformed the market indicating there was not much de-risking for long-short equity funds.

Since June, we have highlighted that there has been a long-awaited change in the market.  First, there has been more dispersion showing up with winners and losers, and secondly, that dispersion has been bottoms up fundamentally driven, rather than the top-down macro-driven dispersion that we had been seeing for two years.   Given the Fed now appears to be on hold and the labor market and credit markets remain strong, we expect this combination to continue with more opportunities in the final quarter of 2023.

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Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.

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Important disclosures: Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.

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