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Will the Pendulum Shift from Inflation Towards Deflation? [VIDEO]
In the latest installment of Real-Time with Jordi Visser, Jordi revisits the themes of peak inflation, slowing growth, and his new views regarding the risk of rising debt and deflation dynamics within the United States. Jordi then discusses the implications of these themes for the second half of the year. Jordi also speaks about the rising Animal Spirits in China and the country’s re-opening.
Jordi highlights some of the equity market rotations and sudden falls in commodity prices that he believes support the peak inflation theme.
He highlights data to support his belief that the risk of a sub-50 ISM reading is rising.
Jordi evaluates M2 over the last decade to highlight this period's significant change. He also points to personal income and personal disposal income's move lower to make the case that this period is meaningfully different than the 1970s.
Finally, Jordi flags Hong Kong and mainland China indexes to argue his belief that Animal Spirits in China will drive the US markets to finish positive on the year.
About These Videos: Our market videos seek to provide a data-focused interpretation of the market's most critical developments. Real-Time with Jordi Visser is a recurring series produced by our President and CIO based on his macro views. The purpose of his series is to isolate macroeconomic indicators (“green marbles”) that are telling the true story of the market, rather than relying on the narratives or stories often portrayed as news. Jordi is a unique thinker and tends to publish these videos during market dislocations/regime shifts when he sees areas where his views differ from consensus sentiment.
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Disclosures: This content (the "Insights Page") is provided by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC ("Weiss"). The views expressed on the Insights Page are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information on the Insights Page has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the original post on the Insights Page from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing on the Insights Page should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked on the Insights Page. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any hyperlinked site. Investing in securities is speculative and involves substantial risk of loss.
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